Seemingly slow innovation

For an industry as advanced and high-tech as aviation, it can be somewhat surprising that it is often so conservative in its approach. Aviation is often seen as slow to embrace change, with many companies clinging to processes and technologies that are decades old.

This changed somewhat during 2020. The volatility brought on by border closures and cancellations forced airlines to adopt shorter, more flexible scheduling windows. Airlines traditionally built their schedules six to twelve months in advance, but flight scheduling windows were compressed to as little as six to eight weeks during the pandemic and this more dynamic approach to scheduling was identified in the Cirium report as one of the most important trends of the coming year.

There remains, however, a general perception that the aerospace industry is always a step or two behind technologies and innovations being used elsewhere, in part because many industry leaders would prefer to let others go first when it comes to trying out new solutions rather than taking the risks themselves.

Part of this is the natural result of aviation's focus on safety. Entrusted with millions of lives every year, airlines are understandably hesitant to introduce new technologies or procedures that haven't been thoroughly tested. But the industry's steady run of year-on-year growth has also likely played a part in this conservative mindset. Now that the industry has experienced such a tumultuous year, might that way of thinking now be over?

What unknown risks in aviation might arise 2021?

Our industry outlook from one year ago failed to predict an economy-crippling global pandemic. We weren't alone. Virtually no one foresaw what was in store for 2020 for the aviation industry and the world at large. Could another unsuspected event arise in 2021 that once again turns everything upside down? It’s not likely, but if 2020 taught us anything it’s that life can change in fast and unexpected ways.

Even the most connected insiders can’t accurately predict where the industry will go from here. Oliver Wyman warned that “reading the direction of the market correctly is trickier than ever” while Boeing cautioned that its market predictions entailed “more near term uncertainty than any forecast in recent memory,” including those released after 9/11 and the Great Recession.

Predicting how the industry will bounce back from this crisis is difficult and it’s doubly tricky to try to foresee unexpected crises on the horizon. But there are plenty of candidates, from the threat of cyber attacks to political instability. 2021 will start with Brexit, the impacts of which the industry has now been preparing for some time, and a new administration in the United States, which could impact regulations and green aviation technology.

But those are things the industry knows are coming. What unknowns might arise in 2021 that could complicate or improve the path of the pandemic or the industry recovery? Without a crystal ball, no one can say for sure.

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2021 Aviation Industry Outlook