In the air, just a light breeze

But how much is 3 GW compared to the energy required by global aviation. Well, converted into green hydrogen fuel, it could keep 20 wide-body aircraft in the air, or 80 narrow-body passenger aircraft (see Figure 2).

So, given there are an estimated 90,000 to 100,000 flights every day, the world would need around 1,000 sources producing 3 GW of alternative power to achieve zero emissions in the aviation industry – and it goes without saying that it has other energy concerns to take care of.

Figure 2

Roughly speaking, the world would need to produce three terawatts of alternative energy and convert it into green fuel at Power-to-X (P2X) plants.

Given that 2023 saw global wind energy capacity exceed 1 TW for the first time, the world has a long, long way to go before it can power itself, and the aviation industry, sustainably.

Crying out for a new Pittsburgh

Society can pat itself on the back for powering its washing machines, toasters and fridges in a sustainable fashion, but its global footprint is a drop in the ocean compared to aviation.

The midway point of this century has been marked by many countries as a year to achieve zero net emissions, but by then aviation, if unmitigated, will be responsible for as much as 22 percent of climate action, according to a MPP/CST report. Domestically, some countries are beginning to make inroads, but globally we are collectively failing.

But could P2X plants make a difference? If there were enough of them, it would be theoretically impossible.

Clearly what the nascent industry needs is another Andrew Carnegie, the 19th century magnate who against all the odds took US steel production into the stratosphere, along with the skyscrapers that shaped the country.

According to a 2023 report carried out by Grand View Research, the global P2X market will be worth $645.3 million by 2030 thanks to an anticipated CAGR of 10.6 percent.

Hydrogen's coming strong, but is it for the long-haul?

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Green jet fuel: Promise or challenge for aviation's future?