OEMs are not prioritising new models for wide-bodies, but should they be?

As passenger numbers continue to increase, airlines are becoming more confident they can fill large aircraft like the A380 to capacity, making a strong case they could be more ESG-friendly.

The production of wide-body aircraft peaked in the mid-2010s. In both 2015 and 2016, the dominant original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) Boeing and Airbus delivered over 400 twin-aisle aircraft to customers – the highest numbers in history.

In 2015, Boeing led the way, delivering 233 wide-bodies – 30.5 percent of the total number of aircraft it produced – while Airbus accounted for 144, amounting to a 22.6 percent share.

But since then, wide-body production has declined – partly because of the pandemic, partly because of a few setbacks, partly because narrow-body aircrafts are considered a more sound investment, and partly because of supply chain issues.

In fact, analysts have stopped regarding the peak period in the 2010s as a trend, and instead as an anomaly. The evidence is in the figures. Just 12.1 percent of Airbus’s deliveries in 2024 were wide bodies: 89 out of 766. This represents a 10.5 percentage point decline over the last decade. Boeing’s share has also dipped a lot, falling 7.3 percentage points from 30.5 in 2015 to 23.8 in 2024 on the back of delivering 84 wide-bodies out of a total of 348 aircraft.

Clearly, wide-bodies are not being prioritised by either OEM. But in light of current passenger and industry demands, should they be?

Rising passenger numbers increasing demand for capacity

At the end of 2024, the Airbus backlog stood at 8,652 aircraft, of which 7,696 were narrow bodies and 956 were wide-bodies – a 12.4 percent share almost completely in line with its 2024 delivery rate.

Meanwhile, the Boeing backlog stood at 6,236, of which 4,772 were narrow bodies and 1,464 wide-bodies – a 23.4 percent share, which again is in line with its 2024 delivery rate. So in the case of both OEMs, their current wide-body delivery rate is in line with demand, even if the delivery rate is slow compared to before the pandemic.

At their current rates, Airbus would take 11.3 years to deliver all the orders in the backlog, and Boeing 17.9 years. At 14.8 years, the average age of an aircraft has never been higher, and this will only increase over the next decade. Meanwhile, the demand from passengers continues to grow. Global numbers are expected to reach 5.2 billion in 2025 – in line with a CAGR of over 3 percent heading towards 2050, which will see passenger numbers more than double.

Clearly airlines will need more capacity to cover this increase and given that most major airports have reached their limit, in terms of the number of flights they can handle, airlines will need to add more seats.

Resurgence of the A380 demonstrates wide-body appeal

Already, we are seeing more airlines bringing their wide-bodies back into service – most notably the world’s biggest passenger aircraft, the A380 – to increase capacity on popular routes. Just recently, Qantas announced plans to return two more A380s to the skies in 2025, taking the number back in service to 191 of the 251 ever produced. Given that 21 have been scrapped since the onset of the pandemic, this means that 83 percent are in service – a huge hike given that only two were in service in the last week of April 2020 – leaving just 36 in storage.

Grounding the A380 during the pandemic made sense as fulfilling its capacity (around 525 with most configurations) was almost impossible – it made far better sense to fly narrow-body aircraft. But in light of the need for more capacity, the A380 and other wide-bodies are returning into service fast.

In March 2025, Emirates, which owns 123 A380s, said it would be retrofitting them – just two months after its chief executive, Tim Clark, called on Airbus to resume making them. Also in March, British Airways confirmed that its 12 A380s would be helping to satiate demand for services to major US destinations, in total offering 225,120 seats on 480 flights a month from April 2025 onwards.

Wide-bodies have the potential to be more ESG-friendly

Capacity isn’t the only trick up the sleeve of the wide-body, as Clark is also adamant that aircraft like the A380 have the potential to be more environmentally friendly than narrow-bodies over transcontinental routes. He would like to see Airbus equip the Emirate A380s with fuel-efficient UltraFan engines – or, even better, resume building the superjumbo using more aerodynamic materials. If the more aerodynamic A380 is full to its capacity and packing an UltraFan, estimates Clark, it has the potential to be 25 percent more fuel-efficient than a narrow-body.

Not only would cutting emission/passenger rates be a boost for airlines’ ESG efforts, but also save them operating costs and help them to achieve greater profitability. Many wide-bodies have engines that are far more fuel-efficient than narrow-bodies built before 2010 – the year in which the impact of Latest Generation fuel-efficient narrow-bodies, which according to 2024 figures account for 30 percent of the global fleet, really starts to kick in.

Also the usage of wide-bodies reduces the total flight frequency, easing both congestion and noise levels at airports. But to accomplish this, they must be as full to capacity as possible.

Winning over the key players in aviation

Only then will wide wide-bodies start to win over the key players in the aviation world.

As things stand, from the perspective of the OEMs, narrow-bodies are quicker to produce – crucial at a time when the fleet expansion demand is high – and less expensive, which yields a quicker return on investment.

From the perspective of the airlines, the same applies: in theory, they should be able to obtain narrow-bodies quicker and take less of a risk with their investment – the pandemic has already demonstrated that the unthinkable can happen. But wide-bodies do offer more capacity, and they will need it in the not-too-distant future.

From the perspective of the airports, wide-bodies aren't for all air hubs, as they require longer, more durable runways and bigger gates, but they do bring lots of passengers to the airport (often with time to kill on transfers), who are good for business.

From a global logistics perspective, more wide-bodies makes good sense, as the demand is there – particularly due to the recent resurgence of e-commerce.

And from the regulators’ perspective, if wide-bodies can make a habit of out-performing narrow-bodies in terms of their environmental performance, then the legislation could start shifting in their favour.

If sustainability becomes not just a regulatory hurdle but a competitive differentiator, the OEMs and airlines might have to change their priorities.

SATAIR TAKEAWAY

OEMs are building wide-bodies exactly in line with customer demand, but what about the demand of the airlines' customers. With passenger numbers steadily rising, the need for capacity has never been more acute, and wide-bodies have this in abundance. They also have a trick up their sleeve in terms of their potential ESG performance. If they can consistently prove they are more fuel-efficient than narrow-bodies, the industry will take notice – they can't afford not to.