As the new year is upon us, it’s time to reflect on what this is likely to mean for the aviation industry.

2025 saw a rapid increase in technological growth and advancements that led to increased use of AI. At the same time, the aviation industry was significantly impacted by geopolitical situations, combined with parts shortages and supply chain challenges.

Despite these obstacles, the aviation industry has proven resilience with growth, which predictions suggest will continue. With growth still predicted to increase and sustainability measures continuing to grow in importance, 2026 looks set to be a year where the industry can show its steadiness while working around the challenges it continues to face.

Overall, the picture for aviation is positive as we look to 2026. Unsurprisingly, the trends that are to note tie closely into the global trends being seen overall and the opportunities that these offer. While the future of aviation seems set to be strong in 2026, it’s worth understanding the key ways in which this will be in play during the next year for the aviation industry

1. Aviation will see steady growth in 2026

Air travel demand has been increasing, and this is predicted to continue into 2026 with passenger numbers rising up to 5% as a global average. In particular, passenger growth is looking to be especially strong in the Asia-Pacific region, due to more interest and a number of new airports. This allows better regional capabilities than before and has a knock-on effect in improving growth. The extent is such that 2026 is set to break passenger number records, with 5.2 billion passengers flying worldwide and airlines expecting to fill 83.8% of seats, showing an extremely high level of seat utilisation.

Air cargo is also expected to grow significantly in 2026, with estimations of a 26% increase. A number of factors influence this, especially e-commerce and time-sensitive shipments, which are expected to represent one fifth of all air cargo volumes worldwide.

Given these growth predictions, the industry is likely to top one trillion US dollars in revenue for the first time in 2026. While promising for the industry, this adds pressure to bottlenecks and fleet delays, as these limitations impact anticipated growth and are costly.

2. The aviation industry is focusing on fleet expansion and modernisation in 2026

Renewing fleets and expanding capacity will be important throughout 2026 to match demand and ensure there is sufficient capacity to meet expectations.

A two-part approach of fleet expansion and modernisation is being used as new aircraft production continues with backlogs stretching years. As a result, airlines are holding onto aircraft longer than planned and gradually replacing older models with newer ones that provide improved efficiency.

Continuing the trend from 2025, long-range narrow-body aircraft are set to stay in high demand through 2026, as they offer better fuel efficiency and secondary city to secondary city routes, which make them less hub dependent.

At the same time, renewal of wide body fleets is also set to be important, due to heightened customer experience, operational improvement, and lower operating cost per seat.

However, growth is constrained due to a lack of labour, parts shortages, and an extremely large backlog, meaning that delivery strategies remain volatile. As both economic and environmental performance are improved by newer models, the sustained demand for modular upgrades is unlikely to lessen, meaning there must be careful planning and strategic rollouts to ensure optimal fleet performance.

3. AI has become a core operational layer across many aspects of aviation

AI has already shown its value in the aviation industry, and 2026 will strengthen the movement from an experimental stage to a core infrastructure process.

AI is rapidly becoming integral across aviation, including in managing operations, which proves particularly helpful in times of irregular operations, and AI systems can recommend decisions that relate to re-routing aircraft, crew implications, and more. It is particularly helpful for air traffic management and infrastructure efficiency, improving slot optimisation and weather-related routing.

AI is becoming a vital part of maintenance and repair work as it can offer predictive maintenance, where component issues are addressed before they cause issues. Using predictive maintenance results in fewer disruptions, better asset utilisation, and lower operational costs.

Training AI on sensor and maintenance data allows better optimisation of spare-part inventories and lessens maintenance turnaround times, so aircraft can be kept in service longer.

While these uses of AI have been transformative, there is likely to be increased layers added to their abilities through 2026, helping maximise operational efficiency even further.

4. Sustainability continues to be a key priority

In 2026, sustainability is more important than ever before - and while aviation industries have committed to greener responses, the realities are struggling to keep up with the intentions.

New levies and mandates are shifting costs to passengers and airlines, and emissions efficiency is being intensified, meaning the aviation industry is prioritising greener solutions. Significant improvements are being shown, including own-grid electricity-powered airports emerging.

While SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) is still one of the focuses, it remains scarce, expensive, and unevenly distributed, meaning that fleets must also look to other areas to show their environmental commitments. One example of this is fleet modernisation, as newer models provide fuel burn improvements, regulatory and cost advantages.

Airports are increasingly thinking outside the box in relation to sustainability, accelerating ground operations electrification and sustainable terminal design. As a result, it seems as though scope one and two emissions are likely to decline faster than in-flight emissions.

As it stands, there are strict requirements for carbon accounting and reporting, and passenger demand for green solutions is growing faster than absolute emissions reductions. This is leading to pressure and scrutiny that can be frustrating - while there is greater sustainability, it is at a slower pace than desired.

5. Supply chain and capacity constraints will cause difficulties for aviation in 2026

As shown in previous points, the aviation industry remains challenged by the significant backlog in production, hindered by shortages in both labour and parts.

Workforce shortages, skills gaps, and stricter quality control are part of the reason - while demand has caught up with pre-pandemic levels, work availability has not. Backlogs stretch into the 2030s and there is a mismatch between the demand and supply, as the aviation system struggles to expand at the same pace as demand and passenger growth.

There are more efficient and advanced engines available, such as geared turbofans, but these efficiency gains come with longer inspections and grounded aircraft waiting for engines or parts.

Improvements to aircraft, such as more advanced engines, also face delay issues due to longer inspections and grounded aircraft waiting for engines or other parts.

Alternative material pathways are rapidly gaining importance as a way to remove these difficulties. USM and repair-first strategies in particular are shifting from options to necessary foundations, as they allow companies to maximise their fleet while facing these supply bottlenecks.

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Aviation trends in 2026: what to expect from the coming year