While USM can help reduce lead times, Dik said that airlines still have to use “common sense” when considering the balance between a shorter delivery time and a potentially limited part life.

“Let's say an airline has sent an engine for overhaul and the MRO comes back and says that they’ll have to wait 70 days for a part because of production pressure,” he said. “What do you do? You probably don't want to wait 70 additional days for just this one part, so one way is to source the market and try to find a broker or a teardown company that has the part either ready to go or just needing a small inspection before it can be installed. But if it's a life-limited part, you have to really decide whether or not you want it used. If you install all the other parts as new, except one that has, say, only 5,000 flight cycles remaining, that part is going to be the limiting factor for the next maintenance activity.”

Further deferral not an option

As the above example illustrates, aircraft maintenance is complex even at the best of times. With two-plus years of deferred maintenance coming due at the same time as a mechanic shortage and a snarled supply chain, there is a risk that the industry will have a hard time playing catch-up. But catch up it must.

Maintenance tasks cannot be put off indefinitely and, depending on the specific issue, deferred maintenance could lead to equipment failures and malfunctions, posing a risk to the safety of passengers and crew. Waiting too long can also increase costs in the long run, as any equipment failures are likely to require more extensive repairs than the original problem.

Because aviation is so heavily regulated, airlines also risk legal implications and fines. The various regulatory bodies have procedures and regulations for ensuring that airlines comply with required maintenance tasks and have the power to impose fines or other penalties on airlines that fail to comply. In statements to the Satair Knowledge Hub, both the US Federal Aviation Administration and the European Union Aviation Safety Agency said they had no plans to relax regulations in light of the maintenance backlog.

Despite the constraints the industry faces, Dik is cautiously optimistic that the system will hold.

“From what I understand, we have not had any major issues with the deferred maintenance yet. There are a lot of issues with delivering parts – that’s not a big surprise to anyone – but I actually would have expected things to be worse,” he said.

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Deferred maintenance presents balancing act for airlines