Breaking down the passenger increase projections: Middle-class growth, flight shame, aviation taxes and the 100 million club
Environmental concerns are having little impact on the increasing demand for airline tickets, which is keeping check with the explosion in prosperity in countries like China and India.
Global passenger numbers are expected to total 5.2 billion in 2025 – a 6.7 percent increase compared to 2024, the first year to topple 2019’s figures.
The rise is in line with anticipated CAGR rates heading towards 2050, which will see passenger numbers more than double – by around 244 percent.
These projections are of unprecedented proportion and, despite growing concerns about the environmental damage caused by flying, nothing looks likely to check the acceleration in demand.
But what's causing the demand, how can airports and airlines ensure they have the capacity to cope, and how important is ESG responsibility heading into the second quarter of the century?
Challenges and opportunities for the aviation industry in 2025
Fueled by cheaper seats and middle-class growth in Asia
The commercial aviation industry mostly attributes the increase in passenger demand to a combination of flights being affordable – even though the cost apparently put off 31 percent from travelling in 2024 (up from 24 percent in 2023) – and the growing middle-class populations of countries such as China and India.
In 2024, the pair accounted for over half of the global increase: an addition of 31 and 33 million newly middle-class people, respectively, out of a total worldwide gain of 113 million.
The middle-classes in both countries will continue to grow over the rest of the decade, with China adding another 8.7 percent – to cement its status as the country with the most middle-class citizens, exceeding 700 million (figures fluctuate according to the definition of middle-class) – and India an extra 17.8 percent to close in on half a billion.
But it is not just China and India leading the charge, as Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam all have rapidly increasing middle-class populations. Respectively, they are expecting increases of 10, 13.5 and 24 percent over the remainder of the decade.
And all of this is clearly reflected in the air passenger increase projections. While China will displace the US as the global leader by 2042, and India will hold onto third place, by the same year Indonesia, currently the world’s 13th largest market, will soar to 4th, and Thailand and Vietnam will each surge 10 places to 9th and 10th.
By 2042, most routes in South East Asia will see similar growth, with intra-China stealing ahead of intra-US and intra-Europe as the world’s busiest market.
Passenger capacity overdrive: Welcome to the 100 million club
The levels of investment in airport infrastructure in Asia have never been higher – and the same is true of most regions.
According to 'Future of Airport: To 2030 and Beyond', global investment will grow by a CAGR of 14.4 percent over this decade and the next, jumping from 1.21 trillion in 2024, to 1.35 trillion in 2028 to 1.8 trillion in 2030 to 2.4 trillion in 2040.
Currently, the most expensive ongoing project is in Asia. The expansion of Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai will make it the biggest in the world by 2050. The first phase will see it increase its capacity from 66.1 to 130 million passengers by 2030 and then to 255 million upon completion.
Al Maktoum isn’t the only airport talking about nine-figure capacities. Airports in Rome, Addis Ababa, Denver, Manila, Hanoi, Al-Ahsa in Saudi Arabia, Kempegowda in India and Incheon in South Korea all have their sights set on handling 100 million passengers a year.
Across the world, airports are busy adding terminals, extending and strengthening runways, and improving passenger amenities and air traffic management.
Digitalisation and automation will be key to making airport processes more efficient.
Investors remain onboard despite growing spotlight on aviation's footprint
Navigating environmental pressures and aviation taxes
If there is a flip side to the growing passenger numbers, it’s the growing number of people choosing not to fly due to environmental reasons.
Most prevalent in high-income countries like Sweden, where the anti-flight movement flygskam (flight shame) was conceptualised in the late 2010s, its impact has been negligible, even though several countries in northern Europe, most notably Norway in 2016 and Sweden in 2018, have introduced aviation taxes on all departing passengers.
As popular as flygskam has become – in 2019, it was blamed for a 4 percent decrease in passenger numbers at Swedish airports (and a 9 percent decrease in domestic flight passengers) – its impact is outweighed by the growth of the middle-classes in countries like China, India and Vietnam.
Flygskam’s social media presence resonates with younger generations – particularly millennials and Gen Z, who tend to be more environmentally conscious than older age groups.
But while it's been able to highlight contradictions in travel to climate summits by private jet, essential travel remains unavoidable for many passengers.
A small proportion choose alternative modes of transport that tend to be more costly and time-consuming – particularly for those outside high-income countries.
And in countries where the rail networks are not as wide-serving as Europe – like the US or most of South America – flygskam has had limited measurable impact.
A UBS survey in 2019, conducted during heightened awareness of the flygskam movement, found that 27 percent of travellers in the US and Europe plan to reduce the number of times they fly due to climate concerns, though subsequent data suggests that this intention was concentrated in a small number of countries, such as Sweden.
Post-pandemic travel patterns suggest limited long-term reduction in flying among these groups.
And governmental support is even waning – last year, the Swedish government confirmed it intended to abolish its aviation tax from July 2025 – even though a fair number of countries have been inspired by the north European example to adopt their own form of aviation taxation.
Why airports and airlines need to demonstrate they care
Nevertheless, the industry cannot take the loyalty of their passengers for granted. Many passengers are concerned about the environmental effects of flying, and both airports and airlines appreciate the need to demonstrate that they also care.
Targets have been set to make commercial aviation carbon-neutral by 2050, and there is genuine optimism this is achievable, even though it will mostly involve technologies that are still in early development, such as hydrogen propulsion, electric aircraft and large-scale sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) production.
To meet stakeholder expectations and regulatory requirements, both airports and airlines need to ensure their own houses are in order: a united front of ESG responsibility across all their operations.
Airports are busy improving the environmental performance of their buildings; reducing energy, conserving water, recycling waste and finding their own green energy supplies are popular measures.
And airlines continue to modernise their fleets with aircraft that are more fuel-efficient in advance of the big breakthrough – whether it will be driven by hydro-electric powered engines or SAF remains to be seen – and invest in route optimisation, again to save on fuel use, the cause of the emissions.
Clear communication with passengers about ESG goals is important, and engagement too – for example, offering carbon offset programmes to passengers when they purchase their ticket.
Together, both airlines and airports – along with other aviation stakeholders – are increasingly investing in R&D at airport innovation centres.
Collaboration can break down silos at a time when all stakeholders need to be on the same page – and both airports and airlines are onboard with testing tech. Previously, they were averse to tech that wasn’t proven.
Is 'NextGen' distracting us from our generational task of decarbonising commercial aviation?
SATAIR TAKEAWAY
Commercial aviation needs to expand its physical footprint to cope with the increased foot traffic heading its way, but not at the expense of its carbon footprint. Accelerated growth among the middle-classes, particularly in Asia, will ensure demand keeps on rising, but the airports and airlines cannot take it for granted. They must show they care just as much as the environmentally-conscious travellers who choose not to fly for environmental reasons.