Furthermore, currently employed pilots and technicians will need training, so they can develop the skills necessary to fly and maintain the next-generation of aircraft that are set to dominate the skies in the future.

To find out exactly how the aviation industry will evolve over the next 20 years, we took a closer look at the commercial market forecasts released by Airbus and Boeing.

Below, you’ll find key figures with traffic and fleet size estimates on a global as well as regional level. We’ll also address the outlook for the global services market as well as important regulatory and environmental considerations.

Passenger traffic will double in the next 15 years

In 2017, an impressive 4.1 billion passengers were carried by air – a 7.5 percent growth compared to 2016. According to Airbus’ market outlook, just 15 years from now that number is expected to double to a staggering 8.2 billion passengers a year.

A large part of the future air traffic will be centralised around Asia-Pacific and the rising middle class in this region. As of 2018, the middle class represents 40 percent of the world’s total population – a number that will rise to 57 percent by 2037.

What’s interesting about air traffic is its resilience to external shocks, such as major changes in the global economy. The industry has historically been relatively unaffected by global GDP fluctuation, and this is thought to continue in the years to come.

Click infographic to enlarge/download

The world fleet will more than double by 2037

Airbus forecasts a demand for 37.400 passenger aircraft and freight aircraft over the coming 20 years. Boeing predicts a slightly larger demand, concluding that the industry will require 42.000 new aircraft by 2037.

Boeing’s and Airbus’ reports agree that the small segment of aircraft and narrow-bodies will dominate the skies in 20 years, representing approximately 76 percent of new aircraft deliveries and 54 percent of the total fleet value in 2037. The medium, large and extra-large segments will represent the remaining 24 percent of demand in units, but 46 percent of the value.

Asia-Pacific will account for the biggest share of new deliveries in the next 10 to 20 years. According to Airbus, 15.640, or 42 percent of the total new deliveries, will be going to this region.

To put that number into perspective, airlines in Europe and North America combined will account for 13.030, or 35 percent of the new passenger aircraft deliveries.

The top 10 risks the aviation industry is facing.

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Market outlook 2017-2037: A glimpse of the future